Streaks
in skilled performance. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review
Gilden, D. L., & Gray Wilson, S. A.
Experiments
in golf putting and darts demonstrated that skilled performance is streaky.
The tendency for outcome sequences to form streaks was greatest when the
task difficulty was such that about half the trials were successful. Mixtures
of the two activities were also streaky even when periodic interruption
made the individual components resemble a random Bernoulli process. Formal
models of sequence structure revealed that waves in hit rate are associated
with the appearance of streaks.